If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “right” starter home, or waiting for some signal that it’s finally time, I want to walk you through why that instinct, while understandable, may be costing you more than you realize, and the data backs it up.
The National Association of REALTORS® released its 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers last November, and one number stood out above the rest. First-time buyers made up just 21% of all buyers, a historic low, and the median age of a first-time buyer climbed to 40. People are waiting longer than ever to buy their first home. But here’s the part that doesn’t get said enough: waiting longer doesn’t mean waiting smarter. I go through the full set of numbers in The Typical First-Time Buyer Is Now 40. What That Means in Chicago.
What the Numbers in Your Neighborhood Actually Show
I pull rolling 12-month median sales price data for my own market reports, sourced through MRED via ShowingTime InfoSparks, and the Near North Side and Lincoln Park trend lines tell a clear story. In Lincoln Park, the median sales price for attached single-family homes (2 bed, 1 bath or less) moved from roughly $375,000 in January 2023 to $521,000 by September 2026, an increase of close to 39% over about three and a half years. Lincoln Park condos in that same category moved from $361,500 to $510,000 over the same stretch. Near North Side’s attached single-family median grew more modestly, from $355,000 to $385,000, while condos in that area followed a similar path. If you are looking at one-bedroom condos, I break down the medians and typical price ranges for four neighborhoods in What Does a First-Time Buyer Actually Spend in Chicago?
That’s not a national average. That’s your neighborhood, month by month, for nearly four years straight. And the story it tells is that real estate here hasn’t just held its value, it has appreciated steadily, even through periods when national headlines were calling the broader market “cooling” or “uncertain.” Clarity comes from local data, not national noise, and the local data is telling Chicago buyers something encouraging: this has been a market that rewards ownership over waiting.
Is Now Still a Smart Time, With Rates Where They Are?
I know rates are part of the hesitation. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September 2026, the first hike since 2023, and 30-year mortgage rates ticked up to around 7.4 to 7.5% in response, according to Forbes Advisor’s 2026 housing market analysis. I won’t pretend that’s nothing. It affects monthly payments, and that’s a real conversation to have with your lender, not something I’m licensed to walk you through myself.
But here’s what the same Forbes analysis also found: national home price growth has slowed to a measured pace, not a decline, and total housing inventory actually increased 4.6% year over year as of September 2026, giving buyers more to choose from than in recent years. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, put it plainly in that report: “Home prices are in no danger of any major decline,” citing steady wage growth and modest, sustainable price gains. Experts quoted in that same piece echoed a consistent point, that trying to time the market, waiting for the “perfect” combination of rates and prices, is nearly impossible, and the better strategy is buying when you find a home that fits your life and that you can comfortably afford.
That lines up with exactly what I see on the ground here. Good homes in Lincoln Park, Old Town, Lakeview, Bucktown, and Wicker Park continue to move quickly. One recent week, through my own weekly ranking system where I score every active Chicago listing the same way, a Streeterville unit topped all 68 homes I analyzed and picked up 442 views on Zillow within days of listing. The broader Near North Side has been averaging around two days on market lately. That is not a market that rewards hesitation. My MRED data through August showed Lincoln Park condos at just 0.9 months of supply.
Who Else Is Shopping for These Homes?
The price data does not show who is on the other side of these transactions, and in my experience that is a big part of the story. Very often, a first-time buyer is buying the condo an empty nester no longer wants. And just as often, an empty nester who is downsizing is buying the kind of smaller home a first-time buyer would have started in. Add second-home buyers who want a place in the city, and all three are frequently shopping the same limited inventory.
That matters because these buyers do not arrive with the same resources. NAR’s 2025 profile found that repeat buyers put down a median of 23% and 30% paid all cash, compared with a median of 10% down for first-time buyers. If you are a first-time buyer, that is not a reason to be discouraged. It is a reason to get preapproved, know your real monthly number, and be ready when the right home appears. If you are selling, you will not know in advance which kind of buyer is on the other side, so the best preparation works for all of them: a well-presented home, a realistic price, and clean paperwork.
What Buying Sooner Actually Buys You
Here’s the mindset shift I want you to sit with: the “perfect” moment to buy rarely announces itself. Rates will never feel exactly right. Inventory will never feel exactly abundant. But the buyers I’ve worked with who bought when they were financially ready, rather than when the market “felt” ready, are almost universally glad they didn’t wait. The appreciation trend in Lincoln Park alone over the last few years backs that up. Every year you own real estate instead of waiting on the sidelines is a year that asset has the potential to be working for you, building equity in a neighborhood where values have moved steadily upward.
Here’s Where I Play Devil’s Advocate With You
I’m not going to tell you to buy anything, anywhere, just because waiting feels risky. That would be irresponsible, and it’s not how I work with clients. Before anyone buys, I ask the harder questions: are you financially ready, not just approved but comfortable? Have you actually talked to a lender about what your real number looks like at today’s rates, not what you were pre-qualified for a year ago? Do you understand what you’re buying into, the neighborhood, the building, the long-term costs of the space you want, including how Chicago’s property tax system works? A disciplined buyer doesn’t rush into the first available house out of fear of missing out. A disciplined buyer moves quickly once they’re prepared, because preparation is what turns “buying now” from a gamble into a strategy.
What the Down Payment Data Tells Us About Today’s Buyers
The same NAR report found first-time buyers put down a median 10% this year, matching the highest level recorded since 1989, with savings, retirement or investment accounts, and family gifts as the top sources. That tells me today’s buyers are resourceful, and they’re finding ways into the market rather than waiting indefinitely for ideal conditions. I’m not able to advise you on which loan product or down payment strategy fits your specific finances, that’s a conversation for a trusted lender, but I can tell you that buyers who start that conversation early are the ones who move with confidence when the right home appears instead of watching it go to someone else.
The Bottom Line
You don’t need to wait until the market feels obvious. What you need is clarity about your own readiness, a strategic read on what’s actually happening in your specific neighborhood right now, and a plan to act when the numbers make sense for you. Lincoln Park’s median price for smaller attached homes climbed nearly 39% over the last three and a half years. Nationally, inventory is rising. Prices are not collapsing. That’s not a market asking you to wait. That’s a market asking you to prepare.
So here’s my honest question back to you: if you’re financially ready, what exactly are you waiting for?
Send me a message. I’ll give you the straight answer on what buying now actually looks like in your neighborhood. And if you’d like market updates in your inbox, you can sign up for my newsletter here.
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